Mayor Mike: You Wonder
How to Stay in Public Life
We Have Some Suggestions
By Henry J. Stern
June 5, 2008
The most important recurring event in New York City government is the election of a mayor, one year after the President is chosen and one year before the governor is elected. Since the consolidation of the five boroughs into greater New York 110 years ago, eighteen men have been elected mayor. Most, but not all, had unique talents which enabled them to perform their duties effectively. Some lacked these gifts. But for all mayors, their individual strengths and weaknesses shaped their administrations.
The Times for the last two days has looked into Mayor Bloomberg's musings on his aspirations after his second term ends on December 31, 2009. The stories, which have appeared periodically and are most often attributed to the multi-tasking Kevin Sheekey, began again yesterday, with Raymond Hernandez's report on the speculations of his staff. The headline across the top of B1: BLOOMBERG IS SAID TO EXPLORE A THIRD MAYORAL TERM OR A BID FOR GOVERNOR. What Next? The Mayor And Advisers Are Suggesting More This is Hernandez' lede:
"As the end of his term nears, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and his senior advisers have been exploring strategies that would allow him to remain in the political life, including undertaking a campaign to overturn the city's term limits law or making a bid for governor, according to two people who have been briefed on the deliberations."
The Hernandez article goes on to report that the mayor commissioned a poll to see whether voters wanted to repeal term limits, and what they thought of him as a candidate for governor. "Either move by the mayor would dramatically shake up the political world and beyond..." the story continued.
Today the story was freshened with a direct mayoral quote. An article by Diane Cardwell, chief of the City Hall bureau of the Times, and Fernanda Santos, appeared on B1, headlined: "A PUBLIC JOB STILL APPEALS TO BLOOMBERG: He Says Foundation May Not Be Enough". The lede:
"As his political team considers strategies that would allow him to remain in public life, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg acknowledged with rare candor on Wednesday that he was unsure about what to do next, and whether it would be as satisfying as being mayor. Associates of Mr. Bloomberg say that while he has not decided to run for governor or seek a way to serve a third term, he has not closed the door on either possibility."
The Post joined the discourse today with an editorial, NO LIMITS FOR MIKE. They denounce term limits and urge the mayor to act: "So, if the mayor is serious, he needs to quit leaking and start lifting -- term limits, that is. He is a man possessed of intelligence, experience, charm, wit and several billion bucks. All in all, that could get the job done." Read the entire editorial if you are interested because the first part expresses considerable skepticism about the drama..
Polls indicate that the voters like Mayor Bloomberg and the job he has done for six years, but they oppose the lifting of term limits. There is considerable support for him as a candidate for governor.
There are several problems with trying to repeal term limits. To overrule the public votes in 1993 and 1996 would be widely regarded as an outrage. In a referendum, however, the plan could easily be defeated, and that would be interpreted as a public rebuke to the mayor. Many New Yorkers would believe that Bloomberg, having supported term limits throughout his two terms, was now trying to change the rules of the game for his own benefit.
When Mayor Giuliani attempted to get legislation passed to extend his term by three months in the wake of 9/11, which had just happened, Speaker Sheldon Silver rejected the proposal with alacrity. Public Advocate Mark Green supported the plan, and lost considerable support in the Democratic Party for taking that relatively statesmanlike position.
Second, the history of third terms, as shown by the three 20th century mayors who served twelve years, is not one of success. Mayors LaGuardia and Koch faced rising opposition as voters became disenchanted with their unique and captivating styles. In the end,1945, his own party would not renominate LaGuardia. Mayor Wagner had it somewhat better, because he won a third term by running against his first and second terms, in which the city's Democratic organizations had considerable influence. He declined to run against Congressman Lindsay in 1965, and was defeated in the Democratic primary when he sought a fourth term in 1969. Mayor Koch, who also tried for a fourth term, lost to David Dinkins in the 1989 Democratic primary.
State officeholders turned out after three terms included Governor Cuomo and Senator D'Amato. Governor Pataki, facing defeat, chose not to seek a fourth term. History has indicated to us that mayoral third terms are undistinguished and often frustrating. Chickens, in the form of unfulfilled promises, come home to roost. As Mayor Koch said: "Every show that opens on Broadway closes some day. At some point, the people get tired of you."
Experience shows that a third term simply postpones and extends the death watch for an outgoing administration. The mayor's good friends have left government, and are replaced by second stringers. That happened to some extent in Mayor Giuliani's second term, which ended in 2001. Under the new law, it had to be his last. Mayor Bloomberg has the resources to employ people for the rest of their lives, and there has been less drift out of his administration.
Nonetheless, the certainty of the leader's departure emboldens prospective successors. It also encourages one's enemies in the permanent government - the state legislature - which is not subject to term limits and whose members are consistently re-elected from gerrymandered districts, assisted by the numerous free mailings that the legislature gives itself. In 2009, a new city council will be elected, with a new speaker. It is doubtful that the mayor will find an ally as staunch as Christine Quinn. Also, the new members will be running for almost certain re-election in 2013, and will be unlikely to be dependent on the mayor's grace and favor.
A more realistic possibility is a Bloomberg candidacy for governor in 2010. This would be a chance to exert real authority, administer a huge bureaucracy, remain very much in the public eye, and think about 2012, when he will still be younger than John McCain is today.
There are hazards in that course, including the question he will face about who he supports for President in 2008. It would be difficult to run for governor in one party's primary if one had supported the opposite party's candidate for President two years earlier. But as we have learned fwith Mayor Bloomberg, nothing is impossible.
The race issue will undoubtedly play a major role in 2010. Much will depend on how good a job Governor Paterson does, but the contest will also be influenced by President Obama's performance, if he is elected. The 2010 election will be a referendum on his first two years, just as the 1994 elections provided a verdict on President Clinton's initial two years. 1994 was the year the Republicans took over both houses of Congress, and elected Newt Gingrich as speaker. They retained that control for twelve years, until Iraq and 2006.
One important project that Mayor Blooomberg could undertake would be to lead ag a non-partisan effort to seek a new Constitutional Convention for New York State. Under the existing antiquated, incredibly over-specific 51,000-word constitution, the issue of whether to hold a new Convention comes on the ballot automatically just once every twenty years. The proposal was defeated at the polls in 1997 as a result of heavy expenditures by unions and other interests who enjoy particular benefits and immunities under the existing constitution.
The issue will not appear on the ballot again until 2017, unless the legislature votes for a convention, which is not likely at this time considering their interest in the status quo. Candidates must be elected to the legislature who will support a con-con, as it was called. This is a matter that should be taken up with state-wide elected officials, the state leadership of the political parties, and editorial boards and civic leaders throughout the state. It could influence a voters as to who to support in the 2008 elections. If one waits to 2009 to begin this effort, another two-year cycle will be lost.
Former Governor Mario Cuomo spoke often of the need for substantial revision of the State Constitution. Former Mayor Ed Koch supports a new Constitution now. Other former and present public officials are likely to join in such a state-wide campaign.. Mayor Bloomberg would be an ideal person to devote time and energy to this extremely important public cause.
Leading this effort would also leave Bloomberg free to undertake other public service missions for which his public recognition and respect, ability to organize and manage organizations, and capacity to provide and raise resources, make him uniquely qualified. He need not confine his skills to his foundation, large as it will be, but should engage in public citizenship, with the capacity to seek elective office if circumstances warrant. He need not confine his efforts to New York State, or the United States; the world should be his oyster.
At a young 66, Mayor Bloomberg should definitely not retire to his garden. He need not scramble to revise the City Charter he has so long supported, nor appear to wangle an exemption for himself and a raft of undistinguished Councilmembers
He need not decide today about running for governor in 2010, although it should remain a strong possibility, depending on political circumstances, as the clock winds down.. Opportunities for public service will arise, and he should take advantage of situations in which his activity can make a real difference. If he is invited to join the Obama or McCain administration, he should make sure he has a position which will afford him substantial autonomy, since he is far past the stage of reporting to some kid on the White House staff.
Mayor, we may not agree with everything you are doing. But the future is yours. You should spend it in good health.
#474 6.5.2008 #1709
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