Henry J. Stern
May 8, 2007
    
Just a reminder.  V-E day was sixty-two years ago today.
In 2007, how many people know what those letters stand for?  If you're not sure, e-mail us.
Or let us know what day was V-J day.  We used to win the wars we were in.
 
This morning's Post splashes a story across page one, GOV. MIKE!  Eyeing run vs. 'spoiled' Spitz in '10.  The article is by Fredric U. Dicker, the Post's state editor.  The quotes come from a single anonymous source, who says he spoke to Mayor Bloomberg.   That makes the story triple hearsay, Dicker says the anonymous source told him that the mayor has low regard for the governor and would like to take him on in 2010.  The story will be denied by the mayor, probably today.  Even if the story were true, or a plausible speculation, the mayor would have to deny is strongly because a) it detracts from his non-campaign for the presidency,  b) it would impair his relationships with the governor, and  c) it would make him appear, prematurely, to be seeking another office. 
 
Nonetheless, the tale has certain plausibility.  It is what is called a trial balloon.  The idea makes enough sense to resonate in some people's minds. Look for other leaks from time to time to follow up on this one.  The front page of the Post is great placement for what appears to be a totally unsubstantiated story.  On the other hand, when volcanoes eare ready to erupt, the first thing you might see is a small wisp of smoke, lazily swirling above the crater.  Here's a hint: the more stridently the story is denied, the more likely it is to be a credible possibility.
 
  In a refreshingly candid statement, Bloomberg himself recently observed that it is highly unlikely that a 5'7" divorced Jewish billionaire from Manhattan will be elected President of the United States.  He is also aware that a quixotic Presidential campaign would injure his reputation.  He is neither a Ross Perot or a Ralph Nader.  In addition, the outcome of his candidacy could be the election of a conservative or radical of whom he would disapprove.  And he does not like to lose.
 
If Bloomberg really wants to be president, there is another opportunity.  The presidency of Israel should be his for the asking.  It was first offered to Albert Einstein, who declined.  His religion would not be an obstacle, except to the Orthodox.  His Gulfstreams would augment their air force.  His demonstrated skills at diplomacy would be valuable in negotiations.  Since he learned Spanish for his current constituents, he could learn Hebrew for his new ones.  He alone, with no prior commitments, could take the tough measures needed to restore integrity and responsibility to a squabbling government. The Jews need a leader, and there is one in the diaspora.
 
Bloomberg might even be able to buy the country, but that would not be the right way to do it.  Since the strongest leader in Israel is sadly in a coma, there is a vacuum which we believe he has the unique ability to fill.   There must be an island in the Mediterranean Sea or in the Indian Ocean which is comparable to Bermuda.  Rule 21-E "Every man has his destiny."  This could be his.  The rest would be up to the Lubavitchers'  prophesies.
 
When Mike Bloomberg began his race for mayor nine years ago,  he was generously considered a 100-1 shot  (We use that phrase right after the Kentucky Derby.) But since he was new to politics, although a major figure in business, he was relatively unknown to the general public.  Therefore, he had no reputation to jeopardize, at worst he would have been considered a decent citizen who tried to clean up the city and lost.  Republicans, even nominal ones, are not expected to carry New York City.  Who would imagine that they could have won the last four mayoral elections.
 
But Bloomberg did win in 2001, by 35,489 votes over Mark Green (Democrat-Working Families).  In 2005, running as a Republican-Liberal and Independent, he was re-elected with more than seven times that margin, 249,870 votes.  If he could run in 2009, he would probably defeat the bloodied winner of the Democratic primary.  The mayor's increasingly frequent trips out of state and to Washington, DC emphasize his status as a national figure. He can create organizations as quickly as David Rockefeller used to, and he does..

To his credit, his scandal-free administration of New York City contrasts sharply with Pataki and the legislators in Albany, and Bush and company in Washington.  There are always crooks in city government; when they find them, they throw them out, relatively quietly.  Bloomberg's closest counterpart in politics is Arnold Schwarzenegger, the iconic Republican whose first race was for governor of California after the prior governor, Gray Davis, was recalled by popular vote.  .  Yet both men are effectively barred from the presidency, one by the Constitution, and one by religion and tradition (although Joe Lieberman almost made Vice President in 2000).
 
Arnold, who will have completed his second term in 2010, will be ineligible to run for re-election.  It is widely predicted that he will challenge liberal Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer for her seat.  Who will win obviously depends on events that have not yet occurred, but California now has two women senators, and Arnold would provide gender diversity in the starkest manner.
 
Schwarzenegger has a race to run in 2010, but what will Bloomberg do at the age of 68?   He will be out of office, having completed his mayoral terms. He has an enormous foundation to run, and he can become the nation's leading philanthropist once Bill Gates and Warren Buffett have spent down.  But elective public office has aphrodisiac qualities, and as the years pass, it becomes are more attractive prospect.
 
The gutter language used by the unidentified source in the Dicker story does not enhance its credibility.  On the other hand, there are no words Deep Throat used that Spitzer has not employed to characterize himself or his opponents.   Vice President Cheney's obscene reference to Senator Leahy of Vermont does not appear to have injured the reputation of either man.   We hope, however, that future dialogue is more genteel.
 
Regardless of how he feels in May 2007, there is a force that may propel the mayor into gubernatorial politics in 2010.  First, the seat is winnable.  Governor Spitzer, excellent on most issues, diligent, productive and highly intelligent, has not yet emerged as a warm and attractive personality.  He has years to establish a more agreeable public persona, and the chances are that he will, more or less, get better at it.  Even mock humility would be helpful.
 
Yet we must remember Bloomberg's early years, where a majority of voters polled, even while thinking he did a reasonably good job as mayor, said that they would not likw to invite him to dinner.  Public perceptions change with the years,, and one should never write off an incumbent, as was done in 1948 with regard to Harry Truman, and in 1969 with regard to John Lindsay when he lost the Republican primary for a second mayoral term. That was the year he was re-elected on the Liberal Party line.
 
Normally, a second term is a relatively easy race.  The voters are familiar with your name, and they are not yet bored with you, or fully aware of your weaknesses.  But some postwar chief executives have been defeated after one four-year term: (Mayors Impellitteri, Beame and Dinkins, Governor Harriman, and Presidents Carter and Bush 41)
 
The Dicker story may or may not have been privately authorized by its subject, the mayor.  But whether or not it is true, it makes enormous sense for the mayor, not necessarily to run for governor, but to keep the possibility in his playbook.  It could be very helpful to the City of New York if the governor wanted to retain the good will of the mayor.
 
The fact that the mayor may have privately derogated the governor means nothing.  Most major politicians have contempt for each other, the only difference between them is the degree of discretion they exercise.  I recall a major rally for Bloomberg in 2005, with the two former mayors, Koch and Giuliani, uniting with arms raised to hail their successor.  The actual feelings of that trio cannot be discussed here.  We can only say that the three sides of the triangle have varying tensile strength, representing aspects of friendship, alliance, distaste and contempt.  No man is hero to his valet, and very few are heroes to their predecessors or successors.
 
Today, May 8, 2007, you heard the first of Bloomberg in 2010.
It may or may not happen, and no one knows whether it will.
We predict, however, that you have not heard the last of the story.
 
 
 
#371  5.8.07  1478wds