By Henry J. Stern
October 5, 2006

Election Day is 33 days from today, and in New York State everyone predicts Democratic victories by wide margins.  The undecided issue now is whether this momentum will enable the Democrats to gain control of the State Senate, which has been Republican since 1966 (forty-one years).  The Democrats had won the Senate in 1964 in the Johnson v. Goldwater landslide.  But they only held it one year, a court-ordered redistricting election in 1965 having returned control of the State Senate to the Republicans, who have held it since.
 
 At this time, October 2006, the Republicans hold 35 seats and the Democrats 27.  If the Democrats win four Republican seats, the parties will be tied at 31-31.  If the new Lieutenant Governor is David Paterson, which appears likely, he will vote for the Democrat, so four turnovers are needed for the Democrats to take control of both houses of the State Legislature.  The Assembly has been gerrymandered into a Democratic majority that exceeds two to one.
 
The United States Senate has been Republican since 1995.  There have been, since the admission of Hawaii to the union in 1960, one hundred Senators.  Alaska gained statehood in 1959.  Prior to that, there had been 96 Senators from 48 states since 1912, when Arizona and New Mexico finished out the 'Lower 48’.

The Senate Democrats (including independent Bernard Sanders of Vermont and independent candidate Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, now hold 45 seats, the Republicans have 55.  The Democrats will need to pick up six seats to organize the Senate, since a 50-50 tie would be broken by Vice President Cheney, whose allegiances are well known.
 
Thirty-three Senate seats are being contested this year.  According to the New York Times,  there are thirteen safe Democratic seats (California, New Mexico, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, whether Lieberman or Lamont, Massachusetts and Vermont) and seven safe Republican seats (Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Texas, Mississippi, Indiana and Maine).  There are six leaning Democratic: (Washington, Montana, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maryland). are said to be leaning Democratic, two (Arizona and Virginia) are leaning Republican.  Five seats are regarded as toss-ups (Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, New Jersey and Rhode Island). 

If the leaners go as predicted, the Democrats would have to win all five toss-ups to get the minimum of   51 votes they need.  So at this time the Republicans appear to have an advantage, unless the Foley affair and events yet to come swing more seats to the Democrats.
 
Turning back to New York State, this is the first time in my recollection that all the state-wide elections have appeared to be one-sided.   The primaries were more vigorously fought than the general election is likely to be.  Although the action will probably warm up somewhat as Election Day, November 8, approaches, the results are not now considered to be in doubt.  Nonetheless, in politics anything can happen, ask the former Congressman from Florida or the Speaker of the House of Representatives. .  Where one candidate is far ahead of his/her rival, it is very difficult for the candidate who is behind to raise money, since a contribution will not only fail to affect the outcome of the election, but is likely to incur the ill will of the probable winner. This makes it even more difficult for a trailing candidate to attain traction, much less gain on the leader.  Elections are now often decided well before they are held.
 
It is known that Mayor Bloomberg, who did not seek any campaign gifts for himself, was distressed when he saw that people he knew, and people and organizations he had helped financially, were contributing to his opponents.  The groups thought they were buying insurance policies because the City Council also helped fund them.  They were, however, incurring the displeasure of a man who had supported these charities for years. His chagrin is understandable.  And there has been no evidence of any financial retribution to those who made injudicious contributions. Dinner invitations, maybe.
 
While we are writing about our mayor, there was an interesting column by Eric Fettmann on the op-ed page of the New York Post with regard to the possible impact of his entering the Presidential race. That would give the State of New York the unprecedented total of four candidates (in alphabetical order, Bloomberg, Clinton, Giuliani and Pataki, two of them Republicans, one independent and one Democrat).   Fettmann writes that although our mayor's ascent to the White House is highly unlikely, a judgment in which the mayor himself concurs, his well-financed candidacy would significantly affect the outcome of the race.  We mlight grandly compare it to the effect of an asteroid passing a tad too close to Earth. 

In fact, we welcome the mayor's consideration of a candidacy, real or not, because it adds to his national stature.  He is organizing over 100 mayors on behalf of gun control and will pursue other issues which falter in a Congress dominated by rurals.  The fact that both Mayor Bloomberg and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger are not considered as competitors for President adds credibility to their joint civic endeavors.  The mayor's alliance with Governor Jeb Bush of Florida on improving education shows an inclination to reach out for allies, which is unfortunately no longer a widespread practice in our divided and partisan Congress.
 
Digressing  for a moment to the topic de jour, the instant messaging of the ephebophile Maf54, we thought of linking this column to selected tapes available on the internet, but decided not to on the grounds of propriety and taste.  If any reader is curious, however, he (or she) can e-mail us and we will send you the link.  Remember, however, Rule 19-E:  'E-mail is evidence mail.  You can telephone us anonymously if you want to know just what this kerfuffle is all about.  We are not Hewlett-Packard, so your privacy will be safeguarded, by us at least.
 
Enjoy the oncoming weekend, and the Columbus Day holiday.  It was 514 years ago that, looking for India, he landed in the Bahamas.  Think of what has happened since.