By Henry J. Stern
September 12, 2006

When does an election seem unsatisfying?
 
When the vote is light, as it appears it will be today?
 
Not really, because the fifth anniversary of the enormous 9/11 tragedy dwarfs local political contests in people's minds.
 
When the result is a runaway, as today's major primaries are thought to be?
 
Not really, because there is nothing wrong with a consensus forming in either party on behalf of a particular candidate for any office. Elections do not have to come down to the wire to gratify the public's appetite for combat.  In fact, if they are decided by a wide margin, more people will be satisfied with the result.
 
In sporting events, people often want the outcome to be close.   It makes for a more exciting game, holding the spectators' interest to the end.  When the play goes into overtime, or extra innings, you get more game for your money, although you could possibly be more eager to get home than to sit out a prolonged contest.
 
In today's primaries, wide margins are predicted by all those in the prediction business for the leading candidates.   NYCivic does not endorse candidates, nor do we predict the outcome of elections.   One of the healthy aspects of free elections is that the results are often unpredictable.   That is fortunate, because it is not at all desirable for elections to be decided by the snowball effect, people rushing to vote for someone because they think he or she will win, and they will receive vicarious pleasure out of being on the winning side.  Others, like me, may prefer to vote for the projected loser, so they will not feel responsible for any of the inevitable mistakes the winner will make.  Or we may feel that a closer race will help keep the winner on his or her toes.
 
The fact that polls cause results as well as predict them is one reason why polling is not an unmixed blessing.   The worst effect comes from exit polling, which asks people for whom they voted for after they have left the polls.   Apart from their inaccuracy (in 2000, the exit polls showed Al Gore running well ahead of George Bush), the different poll-closing hours and different time zones in the United States can seriously impact voting in the western states.  Imagine standing in line to vote and hearing over the radio, or reading on your Blackberry (or whatever device now or will be likely to be have been invented in order to transmit information instantaneously) that the election has already been decided.  Election officials, and some media, have tried to hold exit poll results until voting has ended, but it is very hard to stand in the middle of the information highway, and try to suppress the flow of data from sea to shining sea (the Pacific, at sunset)..
 
There is nothing wrong with a candidate winning an election by a landslide, or with losing one by a similar margin.  People may like the loser, but feel the winner is more experienced and can do a better job.   In some races, people may dislike both candidates because of their ethical standards, character, personality, political history or any other reason, but will vote for the person they consider the lesser evil.   Or they may not have firm opinions on any candidate, and will vote for the one with whom they intuitively feel most comfortable.  It is possible that the loser in one race may be more popular than the winner in another, but it is the candidates that decide for what office they will run, and the voters can choose only from the names on the ballot for a particular office.

It requires a massive ego to run for public office.  One must first raise large sums of money (unless you are already quite rich), then collect thousands of signatures, recruit hundreds if not thousands of volunteers, hire staff, place advertising, try to persuade editorial boards of newspapers of different opinions, and introduce yourself to thousands of voters with varying degrees of interest in the election in general and your candidacy in particular.  These are overwhelming tasks, and it usually takes over a year to conduct a proper campaign.  Some more ambitious and industrious types spend every day of the four-year election cycle raising funds, seeking attention, and ingratiating themselves with other people.  They can't complain, because of Rule 29-B: "This is the business we have chosen."
 
It is often difficult for people who are as self-absorbed as candidates are likely to be to make the wisest decision as to which office to seek.  These men and women usually see themselves as the cream of the crop, at the top of the heap, superior by and large to any of their rivals, so why should they not go for the gold, and seek the grand prize, the brass ring, the jackpot, the Mansion.  Many political careers have been ruined by men and women giving up positions in which they were rendering effective public service and, blinded by ambition, unsuccessfully seeking higher office. 

Term limits now applying to city officials will promote candidacies for higher offices, since it is now up or out.  But even with the new constraints on prolonged incumbency, the previous speaker of the council could have run successfully for president of his borough. He was not a victim of term limits but a beneficiary, since it was only because of them that he became speaker.  And he is a good and honest man who should render future public service.  Applying to all aspirants, it is Icarian ambition which has melted so many wings.  But that is how they learned to fly.
 
There are many injustices and inequalities in public life.  A few people are rich, while others are poor.  Some are attractive, and some are ungainly.  Rule 32-P,”Politics is Hollywood for ugly people."  A few are very intelligent, most are normal, and a few are intellectually challenged.   Some are honest and some are corrupt, it is not certain which confers an initial advantage.  Some are well-born, sons and daughters of past or present public officials, others must make their own reputations.   Most are industrious to a greater or lesser degree, a few are thoroughly lazy.  Some are clearly more literate and more articulate than others, but that is no guarantee of success.  One quality whose importance is underestimated is mental health, particularly as reflected in attitude toward other people. Usually those who are most violent, abusive, intemperate, conceited and arrogant are relatively unaware of their deficiencies in these areas of human behavior.  They often see themselves as victims of persecution of one sort or another by nemeses, real or imagined. It is true, however, that even paranoids have enemies.
 
Primaries are curtain raisers to the general election, which will be held this year on Tuesday, November 7, eight weeks from primary day.   For state-wide offices, one out of four (or five, depending on whether you count lieutenant governor), will be seriously contested.  That race will be for attorney general.  The principal issue to be decided will be control of the State Senate, which will depend on the outcome of a half-dozen local races.  For excitement, look at the two Brooklyn congressional races, for the Owens and Towns seats.
 
Whoever wins, the real struggle for power will come after the election.  We'll all be watching.