Nature's Weapons of Mass Destruction

By Henry J. Stern
December 28, 2004

First, the earthquake, then the tsunami that followed it, killing over 50,000 people, including tens of thousands of children.  It couldn't happen here.  Or could it?

Tsunamis have been a problem in the Pacific Ocean, not the Indian Ocean — until this week.   We are told the Atlantic Ocean does not have warring tectonic plates at its bottom.  On the other hand, today's Post and News warn of another possibility, an unstable chunk of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in the Canary Islands could tumble into the sea, sending a tsunami so large and powerful the entire east coast would be inundated.  The warning was said to have been issued in August, but was published today, because of its timeliness.  This evening, British scientists pointed out this threat, and said we should show the same concern for tidal waves as we now do for asteroid orbits.  These predictions are generally regarded as extreme, unless the disaster occurs, in which case they are prescient.

The East and Gulf coasts of the United States are, as we know, subject to hurricanes and tropical storms, which seem to occur with monotonous frequency.  We do receive advance warnings as the storms work their way across the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, hours or even days ahead of the hurricane hitting the mainland.  In fact, we have more false warnings than we have hurricanes, which causes some people to lose respect for the warnings.  Tornadoes occur, usually in the Midwest, with considerably less notice, are more difficult to track and more deadly.  One that struck Kansas 65 years ago is embedded in popular culture in the United States.
 
This would be a good time for our Office of Emergency Management to publicize its evacuation plans if a bad storm hits New York's low lying areas, like the Rockaways, and the shores of Brooklyn and Staten Island.  You don't have to use the color codes of Tom Ridge, who now looks good in comparison with his putative successor.   But we should learn as much as we can about what to do if disaster strikes.
 
There is always a tradeoff in emergency management, or 'civil defense,' as it was called when I was younger, and we only had the Russians to worry about.  Before that, when I was really small, there were air raid warnings, and it was the Germans who might attack the East Coast, while the Japanese could hit California.
 
These fears were not totally unrealistic; the Japanese had hit Pearl Harbor on Oahu in what was then the Territory of Hawaii.  At Pearl Harbor, they killed almost as many Americans as the Islamic terrorists murdered on 9/11.  Both were unprovoked attacks in what we believed to be peacetime, but in retrospect, the Japanese held the slightly higher ground because they were attacking a military installation rather than civilians.
 
But people's capacity to kill each other by conventional weapons is dwarfed by nature's ability to wipe out whole areas by an unpredicted shifting of plates six miles below sea level.   And, if this can happen — five enormously deadly earthquakes in about a hundred years — who can tell for certain what other disasters may lie in store?   We are told a large asteroid will come very close to us in 2029, subject to re-computation of its path and whatever interventions can be provided by weapons of mass destruction.   It would be ironic if WMD's, used in this way, could save civilization rather than destroy it.
 
With our planet's crust providing a relatively thin covering over the molten metal at earth's core, we are well-aware of the occasional pinprick caused by volcanoes.  The most famous eruption we used to learn about in school (who knows what they teach today) was Mount Vesuvius, on August 24, 79.  That was the real 79, not ' 79.  Although terrible for the Romans, it became a great boon for archeologists, and later a tourist attraction.  One cannot foresee the eventual consequences of any event.
 
In volume, Vesuvius was dwarfed by the explosion of Krakatoa on August 26-27, 1883.  That eruption blew up the entire island, which was located between Sumatra and Java.   Sumatra was the closest land mass to the epicenter of the 2004 earthquake, which came just 121 years later.  This is probably a good time to read up on these literally earth-shaking events.  In addition to creating video games, modern technology has made what used to be called 'research' very simple. 
 
A positive aspect of our changing world is the way this tragedy has been reported.  According to the tables published today, the official death toll in a 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, China (84 miles east of Beijing), was 255,000, although some estimates were far higher.  The magnitude of that quake was 8.2, compared with the 9.0 rating for this weekend's quake under the Indian Ocean.  Yet we read much less of the 1976 tragedy, perhaps because the Chinese government conceals disasters.   Also, the world appears much smaller today; we are all more aware of what is happening in other nations.   And communications are so much quicker; with eyewitness accounts of the tsunami appearing on blogs within a few hours of the event.  The worldwide response to assist the survivors of the destruction is likely to be substantially greater than on previous occasions.
 
What have we learned:

1) Build sensors on the rim of the Indian Ocean, and every other large water body where this could happen.

2) Develop a world hotline, a 911 without the slash, so warnings could be sent instantly to those who might be affected.

3) Low-lying areas, including those in New York City, should have evacuation plans, of which everyone should be aware.

4) California could use a small part of its $3 billion in stem cell research money to work on avoiding the Big One, along the San Andreas Fault.  Remember San Francisco, April 18, 1906.  Mark Twain wrote about that one.

The larger lesson is that all of us who enjoy the gift of life can lose it at any time because of events we cannot reasonably predict.  Some will find in that fact an excuse for self-indulgent behavior.  Wiser people will see it as a reason to act kindly and with consideration for those around you, and for everyone else, on the ground that, when the end comes, as it always does, one will be able to look back (if there is time) on a life well-lived.

Whether or not you believe in the afterlife, which many cultures do in part to offset the misery of daily life, you should try to lead an honest and ethical life, particularly if you are in public service or politics, where responsibility for the well-being of others is inherent in the business you have chosen.
 
It should not take a calamity to make us think of our situation, or our responsibilities.  But the misfortunes of others can stir our own concerns, and it is in those circumstances that we have the opportunity to do our best.