Sumer is Icumen In,
Mayor's Polls Wax.
But Will Elephantiasis
Cause them to Wane?

By Henry J. Stern
July 9, 2004

You haven't heard from StarQuest in two weeks, which can be either a long or a short time, depending on one's perspective. For the first week, I was traveling in Scotland with Peggy and Kenan, trying to learn about another country while enjoying a vacation from my own. We did not encounter any anti-American feelings on our trip, even though I wore a USS Intrepid baseball cap as a marker.
 
This week I have been in New York, reading newspapers and catching up with events. There is a distinct and measurable summer lull here: the streets are less crowded, and it is easier to get a seat on the subway or bus, or to find a cab. Even parking spaces are more available, but only by comparison with the ten tight months from September to June.

One privilege a blogger enjoys is not being prisoner of a deadline. You can write when you feel you have something you want to say. On the other hand, as Dr. Samuel Johnson wrote in the 18th century, "nothing sharpens a man's mind as knowing he will be hanged in the morning."
 
Mayor Bloomberg has now entered the last half of the junior year of his four-year term. At that time in high school or college, everyone is enormously interested in the future, often seeking admission to a better college or professional school than one deserves to enter.
 
In the mayor’s case, his focus is on getting reelected, a legitimate aspiration. He is certainly far better qualified than he was four years ago, and he has done a competent and honorable job. There has been none of the misconduct that has taken place in Trenton, Albany and Hartford, which is not the name of a defunct railroad.
 
As we know, in an election you choose between one candidate and another. It will be interesting to see whether in 2005 the Democrats nominate a person whose qualifications exceed ethnicity or the political necessity to seek another office because of term limits. We may want to see whether the candidate's resume has anything on it other than public employment.
 
We should also want to know what, if anything, the challengers will have to say on municipal issues. Will they reduce onerous taxes, raise inadequate wages, add necessary services, or do all three at the same time? There is a certain inconsistency between saying the mayor should be replaced because he is not a Democrat, and the charge that he is a closet Democrat, or at least governs like one. In any case, he has very rarely appointed or reappointed a commissioner on the basis of political connections. In this administration, political involvement has usually been irrelevant.
 
The polls have shown a steady improvement in the mayor’s popularity, but this climb may be challenged during the presidential campaign, in which the candidate that the mayor will support is not popular in the city. He will have to distance himself somewhat from the national campaign without alienating his more conservative supporters.
 
Bloomberg has done well in avoiding wedge issues such as this one. But the 2004 campaign will present a new test. Fred and Harry Siegel have pointed out that one mayoral initiative that would have helped Republicans, nonpartisan city elections, was not supported by the Republican leadership, usually satisfied with whatever crumbs are left on the table.
 
The mayor will also benefit if there is a divisive Democratic primary, which is often the case. What most people do not know is that it is in the interest of every Democrat with mayoral ambitions, as well as their followers, if they are not enchanted by the primary winner, to help reelect Bloomberg, because then the office will be available in 2009, when the mayor will be ineligible to run.
 
If Bloomberg loses in 2005, the new mayor will be a favorite for re-nomination, and other upwardly mobile Democrats would have to wait until 2013. This is an unintended effect of term limits: making a third term impossible leads to more support for a second term. Term limits also give the mayor greater freedom to act courageously in his second term, because he knows he will not have to fear the effects of his decisions on his prospects for reelection.

Meanwhile, city business goes on. There is a spectacular article on new downtown parks by David Dunlap on E25 of the Times, an unlikely page for such a story. The Times' online edition also contains a slide show. If you don't have it, link to it.

Enjoy the weekend.