Sic Transit Gloria Mundi
By Henry J. Stern
December 11, 2002

    At this point (Wednesday) the transit situation appears to be going to the wire.  Whatever substantial offer the MTA makes, if any, will probably come on the weekend.   For the next two days, we will most likely have more saber rattling (cf. U.S. v. Iraq).  Rational New Yorkers hope for a settlement, and the personal chemistry between the parties is good, so far.  But we still have the spectacle of two trains headed for each other on the same track.

    The issue comes down to: How does a union leader elected as a militant, having strongly denounced the previous leadership which won a 12% settlement (4% a year for 3 years), bring back a smaller package to his members. The fact is that the numbers have changed between 1999 and 2002, (e.g., the Dow Jones averages, and the New York state budget). But if the transit workers and their leadership cannot recognize the new reality, there will be a head-on collision, to use the previous metaphor.  In these conflicts, there is an aspect strongly resembling the game of chicken  (see Rebel Without a Cause, Warner Brothers, 1955).

    Here are three things to watch out for:  1) Announcement of anticipated work-rule savings and productivity measures, which may not materialize in fact, but will be used to conceal the true cost of a settlement.  2) A secret, last minute deal that will mean different things to different groups, but will end up as expensive, or leave some issues unresolved.  3) A simultaneous endorsement or prediction of a  $2 fare, with the implication that labor costs are responsible.

    Note that, like water, transit is a major public service with substantial user charges, which have increased by 2900% since 1947.  A $2 fare would make the increase 3900%.  The latest increase would be ten times the original fare.  (Discounts not included, inflation not considered, but it still went up a lot.)

    Meanwhile, look at this controversy as a civics lesson, and an unfolding serial drama.  It will test the mettle, as well as the image, of the protagonists, who may become antagonists. It may, or may not, lead to substantial penalties for thousands, and great inconvenience for millions.



Henry J. Stern is the director of NYCivic.