NYCivic

January 7, 2005

State of the States
By Joseph Mercurio

Is the Sun Rising in the West, While it Sets in the East?

Republican governors of two blue states gave their State of the State speeches. They could not have been more different. The California governor was speaking of reform and change, while the New York governor was attempting to change his legacy by polishing up his list of accomplishments. Pataki’s speech failed to address his 6 billion dollar budget deficit and said his message today is the same as it was ten years ago, when he first became governor—not what you would expect from a politician about to embark on a run for a fourth term.

Fourth terms have been almost impossible for mayors in New York City or for governors in the state. In modern times, only Nelson Rockefeller managed a fourth term as governor. Even Robert F. Wagner, who would have won a fourth consecutive term as mayor, but did not run for personal reasons, came in second in a primary, when he ran after a hiatus. Pataki looked more like an incumbent doing maintenance, simply filling out the job, resigned to do a few more small things as before, fully expecting the opposition to take control in the next election. Pataki pledged to create a few more bird habitats (he has been good at land use) and mandate that the government use non-toxic cleaning products even in schools. After ten years in office, he realized the government is using toxic cleaning products and pledged to stop—and that was a positive.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, on the other hand, told his legislature that budget and legislative reform was urgent. He said, “If we here in this chamber don’t work together to reform the government, the people will rise up and reform it themselves. And I will join them. And I will fight with them.” You might not agree with The Arnold on issues, but you have to admire his determination to go for change.

George, by comparison said, “I ask you to join me in seeking not just incremental change, but rather bold, sweeping, fundamental change.” He used “bold” a lot in this speech. Somehow, however, the listeners could not help but go away saying to themselves, “Even an increment would be a lot to hope for after this speech.” Saying “bold” a lot does not make it so.

Republican Mayor Mike Bloomberg said he thought it was “a great speech” even though there was no substantial gain for the city, except a West Side stadium New Yorkers and the communities’ local elected officials do not want; and perhaps a hint of more switching of state taxes to local property taxes. Elliot Spitzer pointed out that the governor seemed blind to the state’s problems. Republican Senate Speaker Bruno was quoted calling the speech, “Bold, positive and hopeful.” Assembly Majority Leader Sheldon Silver told Karen DeWitt of Public Radio, in a literary allusion to A Christmas Carol, that the speech was, “As far as legacies go, it is a serious chain.”

While Governor Schwarznegger seems at the top of his game and the beginning of a long political carrier, Pataki sounds ready to rap it up. Another Republican moderate former Governor, Christie Todd Whitman of New Jersey, who made it into the Bush Cabinet as head of EPA just came out with a book saying that ideological extremists have taken over the Republican Party. A progressive North Easterner, she was pushed out of the administration. The same people seem to be keeping Pataki from a federal appointment and a good exit strategy. With poll numbers sagging and little hope of moving to Washington, Pataki is beginning to look like a lame duck. It is hard, however, to rule him out, since he is an incumbent, raises huge amounts of money, and has a very smart team of consultants.

Throughout the speech, Attorney General Elliot Spitzer sat just behind the governor’s shoulder looking for the entire world like inevitability. If Pataki does not run, there is a very small bench on the Republican side. Few Republican elected officials or businessmen, for that matter, have statewide exposure with voters except for former Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Because his business is doing so well, no one expects him to run; and after the recent Kerik affair, he is likely to stay in the private sector.

Will this be the end for Pataki in the East, while it is the beginning for Schwarzenegger in the West? Are the Democrats ready to revive the state, once it is fully in their hands? More later.